Apple's Foldable Entry to Ignite 21% Market Growth and Reshape Leadership by 2026

A new forecast from Counterpoint Research predicts the global foldable smartphone market will experience a significant 21% year-over-year growth in shipments by 2026. This expansion is expected to be fueled by a combination of factors, including steady demand for premium book-style foldables, intensified competition among leading manufacturers, and the highly anticipated entry of Apple into the foldable category.

The competitive landscape is set for a dramatic transformation. While Samsung is projected to maintain its leadership position in the foldable market in 2026, its dominance is expected to wane. The company's market share is forecasted to decrease from 40% in 2025 to 32% in 2026, opening the door for major shifts among competitors.

The report highlights that the market share distribution will see a significant realignment with Apple's debut. Apple is projected to capture a remarkable 25% of the market in its first year. Meanwhile, Huawei is expected to continue its strong performance, particularly in the Chinese market, securing a 24% share. Other key players, Motorola and Honor, are forecasted to hold 8% and 3% of the market, respectively.

Before Apple's first foldable device arrives, Samsung's upcoming Galaxy Unpacked event is poised to be a pivotal moment for the market. The company is expected to unveil its Galaxy Z8 series, including the Galaxy Z Flip8, Galaxy Z Fold8, and a new, larger foldable device. This new large-format model is anticipated to garner significant attention, offering a more practical cover screen and an expansive inner display ideal for multitasking, content consumption, and AI-powered productivity.

The trend towards larger screens is becoming a core competitive advantage as AI functionalities evolve from basic interactions to integrated daily workflow tools. Tasks such as document summarization, content editing, schedule management, and cross-application information transfer all benefit immensely from more screen real estate and flexible layout designs.

According to Liz Lee, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, 2026 will mark a new phase for the foldable market. Apple's entry is expected to significantly boost consumer awareness and set a new benchmark for premium foldable products. However, Samsung retains clear advantages in product maturity, channel distribution, and user experience. Its new large-screen offerings are designed to create a more natural user experience, especially for those who need to manage multiple tasks, track progress, and leverage AI features across different applications on a single screen.