Apple’s Foldable iPhone: High-End Breakthrough or Niche Gamble?
As the foldable phone market hits a plateau in 2025—plagued by slow innovation, high prices, and fading consumer excitement—Apple is preparing to make a bold move. The company’s upcoming foldable iPhone, expected in 2026, represents a high-stakes push into a shrinking yet premium segment of the smartphone market.
However, not everyone is convinced.
“We have no doubt Apple can create the most beautiful foldable phone on the market, but the question is — who will pay $2,000 for it?”
— Edison Lee, Analyst at Jefferies
Lee’s skepticism echoes a broader concern: with global foldable phone penetration hovering at just 1.6%, Apple’s high-priced debut could be as much a luxury statement as a commercial gamble.
01. Market Slump: Growth Stalls as Huawei Leads
The foldable phone boom appears to be losing steam. TrendForce forecasts global shipments at 19.8 million units in 2025, maintaining the same modest 1.6% market share as last year.
In China, the slowdown is even sharper — IDC reports a 14% year-over-year decline in Q2 2025 shipments. Yet, amid this slump, Huawei continues to dominate with an extraordinary 72.6% market share.
In the first half of 2025 alone, Huawei shipped 3.74 million units, accounting for 75% of the Chinese foldable market — its highest share ever.
Globally, Samsung remains the leader, though its share is expected to dip from 45.2% (2024) to 35.4% (2025). Huawei follows closely with 34.3%, underscoring a two-giant race for dominance.
02. Apple’s Strategy: Premium Pricing and Calculated Trade-offs
Apple’s first foldable iPhone is expected to debut in September 2026, alongside the iPhone 18 series. Early reports indicate a price tag between $1,800 and $2,000, positioning it as the most expensive iPhone ever, rivaling the top-tier MacBook Pro.
A UBS report estimates the device’s material cost at $759, 4% lower than rival models, giving Apple a potential gross profit margin of 53–58%, far higher than the iPhone 14 Pro’s 47%.
Design-wise, the foldable iPhone is described as “two iPhone Airs side by side,” using a titanium-aluminum alloy frame. Instead of chasing the latest foldable tech, Apple may rely on mature flexible displays and shared iPad components to balance innovation with efficiency.
03. Innovation Bottleneck: The Limits of Hardware
The biggest challenge facing the foldable market is stalled hardware innovation.
According to IDC, breakthroughs in weight reduction and crease optimization are slowing, leading to waning consumer enthusiasm.
Survey data shows users want improvements in:
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Battery life (48.6%)
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Hardware/software innovation (46.5%)
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Screen quality (40.2%)
Huawei continues to outperform in China, while Honor and Motorola are gaining traction in the mid-to-high-end market. Meanwhile, China’s maturing supply chain now accounts for over 40% of global foldable production, securing its leadership for years to come.
04. Consumer Behavior: Rational Buying and Limited Scenarios
To reach mass adoption, foldable phones must overcome price resistance and limited use cases.
According to iMedia Research, only 32% of users rated price satisfaction at 5/5, while “ease of use” and “feature variety” scored higher at 36%.
Entertainment remains the top use case (79%), followed by photography and video (53%), suggesting foldables haven’t yet become productivity tools.
As Jefferies notes, even with Apple’s premium craftsmanship, a $2,000 price tag will test consumer willingness — especially when competitors like Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 7 offer thinner designs and nearly crease-free screens.
05. Apple’s Edge: iOS Ecosystem and Software Integration
Apple’s greatest advantage lies in its software ecosystem. Analysts believe that iOS integration could dramatically increase high-end consumer adoption once Apple enters the market.
Unlike rivals that emphasize hardware, Apple’s strategy focuses on stability, continuity, and seamless user experience.
IDC calls this the age of “software-defined hardware”, where innovation will increasingly come from software and ecosystem design rather than physical form factors.
This aligns with trends seen in China’s Hongmeng OS 5, which uses a distributed architecture to connect multiple devices and enhance cross-screen functionality — an area Apple could perfect within its ecosystem.
06. The Road Ahead: Segmentation and Price Correction
Apple’s entry will likely accelerate market segmentation and price tiering within the foldable category.
TrendForce expects Apple’s arrival to reignite interest and push foldables closer to mainstream status, though mass adoption remains years away.
iMedia Research predicts future growth will hinge on:
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Advanced screen and hinge optimization
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Better battery endurance
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Robust after-sales support
Meanwhile, mid-range devices like Xiaomi’s MIX Flip are helping drive prices downward — a contrast to Apple’s “super flagship” approach.
By 2029, IDC projects global foldable shipments will reach 27.3 million units, growing at a 7.8% compound annual rate — steady, but far from explosive.
Ultimately, Apple’s first foldable iPhone isn’t about volume — it’s about prestige and influence. Its success will be measured not by sales figures, but by how effectively it reshapes the perception of what a premium foldable can be.
Would you spend $2,000 on a foldable iPhone — or do you think Apple’s move into this niche is a step too far?
